230 million people in Pakistan are facing an existential crisis, and even China cannot save them!
In modern society, a country with about 800,000 square kilometers of land and nearly 230 million people living in it, what would it be like to face a nationwide blackout? Pakistan had a profound interpretation at the end of January this year.
Because of a voltage surge fault at a power station in the southern Sindh province, it directly implicated the national power grid and was once out of power for more than 12 hours.
Not only was the entire country suddenly plunged into darkness without lighting, but medical, industrial and communication services were affected as a result.
Pakistan's most important textile industry has suffered a loss of 70 million US dollars.
But this is just the smallest episode among Pakistan's many troubles, because compared to a simple power outage, Pakistan is facing the most severe debt crisis in history.
In order to repay the 6.4 billion US dollars of debt due at the end of March, the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Pakistan have fallen below 3 billion US dollars, more importantly.
Even so, Pakistan has been unable to meet the imports of agriculture and energy, and is about to face the crisis of national "bankruptcy".
The main reason can be summed up as "making ends meet". On the one hand, the sudden torrential rain and flood in the middle and late last year caused more than 33 million people and 6,200 square kilometers of farmland to be affected.
The reduction in production of a large number of cotton and grain farms not only directly affected the export of the textile industry, but also caused a huge food gap.
On the other hand, Russia and Ukraine, which are major exporters of food and energy, have been in military conflict for a year, which directly triggered a surge in international energy and food prices.
For Pakistan, which relies heavily on aid and imports for both agricultural supplies and industrial energy, the soaring import prices are nothing short of a nightmare.
Under the ebb and flow, Pakistan has not only almost run out of foreign exchange, but domestic inflation has soared all the way. At the beginning of this year, the inflation rate has risen by more than 27% year-on-year.
This means that compared with last year, 100 yuan instantly evaporated 27 yuan out of thin air, and the currency depreciated by more than a quarter.
However, in addition to the huge economic difficulties that accompany inflation, Pakistan’s escalating factional struggles and strong internal security risks are constantly disrupting the normal order of the entire country and laying a huge hidden danger for Pakistan in 2023.
In the face of the situation of "Pakistan Railway", China is helpless.
Why can the "Pakistan Railway", a country with a population of 230 million that has been dragged down by debts, rely on agriculture?
Judging from the current foreign exchange reserves of less than US$3 billion in Pakistan, even if it no longer repays international debts and becomes a "laolai", it may only be able to maintain its import demand until the end of March and early April.
However, throughout 2023, Pakistan still has 12.8 billion US dollars in foreign debts to be repaid. These are caused by Pakistan’s continuous borrowing of new debts to repay old debts, tearing down the east to pay for the west.
However, following China's "mixed" minibus, it is obvious that China has tailor-made the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor for it, how did it get mixed up like this?
In fact, through the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under the One Belt One Road strategy, it has not only had a profound impact on Pakistan's various national economic fields such as transportation, energy, industry and commerce in the past 10 years, but also created nearly 200,000 jobs.
The reason why economic cooperation with China failed to trigger subversive changes in Pakistan is because its "foundation" is too thin.
Although it is nominally one of the top 50 economies in the world, and its average economic growth rate once reached 7% in previous years, it can only barely maintain around 5% in recent years.
In the face of a large number of labor forces due to the continuous expansion of the new population, it is estimated that only by maintaining a growth rate of more than 7% in Pakistan can it effectively guarantee the employment of the population and make the society relatively stable.
However, the reality is that more than 63% of Pakistan's population comes from rural areas, and most of these people can only engage in agricultural work.
More than 45% of the people in the country are engaged in agriculture. At the same time, more than 48.5% of the people have not received any basic education and are completely illiterate. Nearly 40% of the low-level people are in a state of extreme poverty with zero assets.
In addition, the natural environment faced by Pakistan is also extremely cruel. More than three-fifths of the country's land is mountainous, and the north is cold and dry. The annual precipitation is less than 300 mm, which is drier than the Loess Plateau.
However, the hot and humid south is prone to floods. The main agricultural areas can only rely on the plains formed by the Indus River Basin, and there are large desert areas east of the Indus River.
In this case, more than 19% of the output value of the Pakistani economy is agricultural output.
However, although agriculture is the largest pillar industry in the country, it cannot even achieve national food self-sufficiency.
However, a large number of labor forces across the country are imprisoned on the land in this way, and it is difficult to achieve the growth of the manufacturing export-oriented economy through the demographic dividend.
As for the reason why it is difficult to develop the manufacturing industry, the main reason is the political chaos in Pakistan. Non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries has always been our diplomatic principle.
But without a stable internal political environment, no matter how big the aid is, it will be useless.
Although my country provided Pakistan with a low-interest loan of 2.3 billion U.S. dollars in the middle of last year, it also directly gave 400 million yuan in funds and a large amount of material assistance to the flood disaster.
But saving the emergency does not save the poor, and Pakistan can only save itself if it wants to get out of the quagmire.
How can Pakistan, which will encounter a huge "bankruptcy" crisis, "save itself" through the economy?
Although China likes to refer to Pakistan as "Pakistan Railway" on the Internet, except for official or semi-official economic cooperation, China has never encouraged private enterprises to go to Pakistan in large numbers.
Because of its domestic security issues, accompanied by factional power struggles within Pakistan, it is particularly prominent.
Just on March 4, a serious suicide attack broke out in Peshawar, 140 kilometers west of Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, resulting in more than 200 injuries and 67 deaths.
On March 15, another explosion occurred in a city in Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan province, killing 2 and injuring 3.
Even former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was assassinated in public in April last year.
The new Prime Minister Sharif who is now in power has always been at odds with Imran Khan, and the long-term political infighting has brought the country's economic development to a standstill.
Even Bangladesh, which was separated from Pakistan due to the third India-Pakistan war after 1970, is now relying on undertaking industrial transfer and developing labor-intensive industries.
Achieve an annual economic growth rate of 7.1% in 2021-2022.
In fact, Bangladesh, which is also an Islamic country and has a large number of poor people, is very similar to Pakistan in terms of basic national conditions. It's just that the political situation in Pakistan is more complicated.
Although a Pakistani economic minister said that export-led economic growth is the best medicine to get out of trouble!
However, Pakistan, which lacks a manufacturing base in a short period of time, can export it. In the end, it even played a trick of aiding Ukrainian T-80 tanks in exchange for Western aid.
In fact, if Pakistan wants to solve domestic problems, the most important thing is to form a unified pace across the country.
Now each province in Pakistan has its own interests, especially the Pashtun province, Baluchistan province and tribal areas bordering Afghanistan in the west, which have been infiltrated by the Taliban for a long time.
A branch of the Bata terrorist organization has been formed, and incidents such as bombing attacks often occur in this area.
Under such a harsh security environment, how dare foreign capital transfer industries to Pakistan, which has a large labor force but cannot convert it into a demographic dividend. In the end, it will only cause more serious social difficulties and exacerbate the crisis.
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